Live Cattle: I'm looking forward to CattleCon being in Nashville this year, seeing friends, and meeting new ones. Although I won't have a booth there, I will be present on Tuesday, February 3rd for the day. If you have a moment during the day, send me a text as to where you are in the show and I'll find you. If you would like to set up a time now, please do so and we will find a place to talk. My cell phone number is 615-828-5891.
The ice storm in the southeast is hampering cattle movement and may not move much for the remainder of this week. I think humans are more impacted than cattle in the rest of the US. Monday's price action after the on feed report didn't seem to be very supportive towards a roaring bull market. Cash markets are trying to hold together and were anything to impact them, futures traders would be anticipated to be quick in reducing long exposure.
Feeder Cattle: Backgrounders are believed holding the most expensive inventory in history now. Feedyards are back to much more normal profits of under $100.00 per head, projected enormous losses, and futures traders seem to be in no hurry to assume your risk at a tighter basis level. None of which are anticipated to bullish feeder cattle prices. I think the biggest concern is whether the current core inflation rises, and if commodity prices are influenced by to trade higher, or hampered, due to consumers having less discretionary income. From this morning's Consumer Confidence report showing a 12 year low, consumers appear to be a little more cautious about the future than cattlemen.
Corn: Corn is soft and beans are plus on the day. Mostly due to bean oil being higher. The demand for bean oil has made for a glut of bean meal. This should be of great benefit to pork and poultry producers with the ability to lock in under or at just above $300.00 for the remainder of this year.
Energy: Energy is higher today with the cause most likely more oil tankers being captured on the high seas than anything else. Last weeks EIA report showed a build in all supplies of energy. Energy appears to want to breakout to the upside. With supplies not short, and a desire of the President for lower prices, there must be something else driving prices higher.
Bonds: Bonds are lower. Consumer confidence is lower. Inflation continues to rise with core anticipated to increase even more due to massive government spending and a great desire for lower interest rates and higher share prices. Were energy to actually rear its head and start trading higher, the consumer would be believed hampered greatly by commodity inflation.
Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "Mid Day Cattle Comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com
This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
