Live Cattle: The lines in the sand appear well drawn. Cattlemen need cattle to fill empty pens and slaughter hooks, and the US consumer is shifting uncomfortably in discretionary spending, due to inflation, and the government attempting to reel in spending, believed going to impact consumers further. No doubt, the shortage of cattle to trade or go around for everyone is limited with a belief large swaths are already spoken for. The trick will be to keep beef demand elevated, after having achieved a stable beef production level. The old saying of "if you don't pay attention to history, you are likely to repeat it", goes both ways at the moment with not shorting a bull market or not marketing cattle at the top of a 4 year plus long bull market generated by excessive government spending for which is currently attempting to be reeled in.
Feeder Cattle: At the moment, the tiger traps appear to be dug with shovels, and refilled with the same shovel of dirt, or they may be pouring water back into the hole instead of dirt. Note that in my opinion, only a shovel is being used. In my career, I have seen backhoes and then trackhoes digging these pits. While still using shovels, attempt to market as much as possible and as definitively as possible in order to live with whatever consequences the current flux of circumstances at play will produce.
Class III Milk: Milk was lower. I am wrong and now what to do about it. The loss of breeding herd appears of no consequence to milk production at the moment. Although believed an extremely serious situation, and the dairies seemingly in no hurry increase herd size, I will figure out a way to exit this mess. Were prices to start higher, I would still be inclined to remain long than just finding a place to exit. At current prices levels under $18.00, I perceive some support at these levels.
Corn: Corn rallied today as the tariff talk goes back and forth. I recommend buying the July at the money corn calls and buying the December $5.00, $4.80, or any bull call spread of a dollar with a less than $.25 premium. This is a sales solicitation.
Energy: Energy continues to plummet. It appears there is a little more downside to go. Contract lows are not far, and I would anticipate a slowing of the selling just above or below.
Bonds: Bonds were lower. Inflation remains stubborn. Equities are lower. With companies doing an about face, after having spent no telling how much on attempting to follow along with the previous liberal agenda, it appears the reeling in of government spending is impacting earning's to some of these companies as well.
Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "Mid Day Cattle Comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com
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