Weekly Drought Monitor for the Week ending 6/16/26

Drought in the Lower 48 States decreased 2.0% since last week and 10.5% since last month.

This Week's Drought Summary…

The heaviest precipitation this week occurred across the Midwest and southern Plains. Flooding rains developed from south Texas into the Gulf Coast region during and beyond the period considered in this week's analysis. Portions of Illinois and Indiana recorded precipitation totals 4–5 inches above normal. Over the past several weeks, persistent rainfall across the Midwest and central to southern Plains has contributed to widespread drought improvement.
Temperatures were near to above normal across much of the country. The coolest conditions were observed from the central Plains into the northern Rocky Mountains, where portions of Montana and Wyoming averaged 4–6 degrees below normal. In contrast, the East Coast—particularly New England—as well as much of California and southern Nevada, experienced above-normal temperatures. Parts of New England recorded departures of 8–10 degrees above normal.

Looking Ahead...

During the next 5–7 days, more heavy rainfall is expected in the Deep South, as a result of a Tropical Storm Arthur near the southeastern Texas coast as of this writing. Deep tropical moisture will stream northeastward from Arthur as it advances into the Southeastern states. This tropical rainfall will have the potential to produce more drought relief in southeastern Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Current rainfall forecasts by the Weather Prediction Center also show the potential for several inches of rain from Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, eastward into the Ohio River Valley, with more severe weather potential in the Midwest region. Other areas of appreciable rainfall are forecast for parts of the Northeast and the eastern portions of the High Plains.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook shows that above-normal temperatures should prevail across much of the western U.S. and along the immediate Gulf coast into Florida. Below-normal temperatures are possible from the eastern portions of the High Plains, the Midwest, and into the Northeast states. Meanwhile, precipitation is projected to be above normal across much of the Midwest and High Plains, possibly extending into the Northeast states. Near-normal rainfall is anticipated across the South and Southeast in the 6-10 day outlook, with below-normal precipitation expected in most of the West.