Cattle markets are strong in early February but are challenged to absorb and digest a wide range of news.
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University - Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Inventory Data
The Cattle report released in late January provides lots of data for market participants and analysts to digest over many days. The beef cow herd was down another one percent, extending the cattle cycle to at least a twelfth year. A 0.9 percent increase in beef replacement heifers may indicate that the herd is stabilizing. However, little or no growth in the cow herd is possible in 2026 and not much in 2027. Seven of the top ten beef cow states saw a herd decrease in 2025 indicating that lingering drought and drought threats, along with financial challenges, continue to delay herd rebuilding.
Weather Issues
A variety of weather concerns are part of the cattle market discussion. The drought map continues to deteriorate with growing concerns about the upcoming growing season.
The late January storms impacted beef cattle operations across a wide swath of the country and will have lingering impacts in the coming weeks. Strom impacts on feedlot cattle are likely to show up in carcass weights for a few weeks going forward. The delay in market-ready cattle has stimulated fed cattle markets into February. Some cow-calf producers were already calving during the storms, so longer term impacts on the calf crop are unknown at this time.
New World Screwworm (NWS) and the Mexican Border
The cattle industry continues to nervously anticipate another shoe (or maybe two shoes) to fall in awaiting a reopening of the Mexican border and the continuing threat of NWS arriving in the U.S. The market implications of both events are probably not as severe as the fear and uncertainty suggest, but both possibilities inject considerable potential volatility into cattle markets.
(Other) International Trade
The latest release of monthly trade data catches up to the normal two-month delay with the release of data for November 2025. For the first eleven months of last year, beef exports were down 13.8 percent, mostly the result of exports to China down 95.8 percent year over year for November and down 64.8 percent for the year to date. Beef imports through November were up 18.3 percent.
Last week, a presidential executive order increased the TRQ for Argentina from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons of beef. This could allow imports of Argentine beef to about double from 2025. Imports from Argentina were already exceeding the 20,000 ton limit. It’s not clear how much additional Argentine beef might actually be imported this year. Argentina consumes nearly three-quarters of beef production domestically. Of the roughly 24 percent of beef exported, exports to the U.S. are only about seven percent of Argentine beef exports. Increased exports of beef to the U.S. will compete with domestic demand in Argentina as well as exports to other markets. The impact in the U.S. is likely to be minimal. Beef imports from Argentina would only be about four percent of U.S. imports if the new quota is filled and mostly likely an increase in imports from Argentina will simply displace imports from another country, not changing the total much, if any.
Derrell breaks down key data from the report, discusses long-term trends affecting herd size, and outlines what these changes could mean for cattle markets moving forward. Get expert insight into current conditions shaping the U.S. cattle industry on SunUpTV from February 7, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_hMW6tHllY
