LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting official data reported through the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters. Broiler production is raised reflecting recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data indicating lower production in the fourth quarter of the year. Egg production is lowered on reported data through June and slower growth expected in the second half of the year based on recent hatchery data.
For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter and lighter dressed weights carrying into 2026. Broiler and turkey production are raised for the year on lower feed costs and supportive demand due to tighter red meat supplies.
Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026. The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. The reduction is carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026. The pork export forecast for 2025 is raised based on official data reported through June and no changes are made to 2026 pork exports. The broiler export forecast is also raised for 2025 based on data through June and is unchanged for 2026. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is raised on data through June and higher exports for the third quarter. The 2026 turkey export forecast is unchanged.
Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026. The 2025 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices, with increases continuing into 2026 on tighter pork supplies. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 are reduced for the second half of the year based on recent price declines through early August, with reduced prices carrying into next year. Turkey prices are raised for the second half of 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength and support from tight supplies of red meat.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69.0 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s projection while harvested area is up 0.4-million acres.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion. Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is reduced with a decline for Uruguay.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year.
