LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025 is forecast lower than last month, with lower beef and turkey production more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production. Pork production is raised this month as lower production in the second quarter of the year is more than offset by higher expected dressed weights and slaughter in the second half of the year, based on recent pig crops reported in NASS’s June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is raised for the second and third quarters on higher weights. Beef production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter and reduced dressed weights. Turkey production is lowered primarily on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered on the recent hatchery data.
For 2026, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected feedlot placements are expected during the second half of 2025, as strong demand for beef supports feeder cattle prices. The forecast assumes cattle imports from Mexico remain banned for the duration of the forecast period due to the presence of New World Screwworm. Pork production is raised, as higher expected pig crops during the second half of 2025 are expected to result in higher slaughter in the first half of 2026. Broiler, turkey, and egg production forecasts are unchanged for 2026.
Beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised on recent trade data, with the increased pace of imports expected to continue through the end of 2026. Beef exports are raised for 2025 on recent trade data. Beef exports for 2026 are also raised on higher production. Pork exports for 2025 are raised on higher expected shipments during the second half of the year. The 2026 pork export forecast is unchanged. Broiler exports are reduced for both 2025 and 2026 on international competition from exporters in key markets. No changes are made to export forecasts for turkey in 2025 or 2026.
The cattle price forecast in 2025 is lowered slightly based on reported data through the end of the second quarter. No changes are made to the forecasts for the second half of 2025 or 2026. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2025 and 2026 on recent price strength and reduced beef supplies during the second half of 2025. The broiler price forecast for 2025 is raised for the third quarter on recent price strength. The broiler price forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey price forecast for 2025 is raised on tightening supplies, which is expected to carry through the remainder of the year.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024/25. Feed and residual use is down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised as wheat production is projected at 1,929 million bushels, up 8 million from last month on higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area. The all wheat yield is 52.6 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month. Winter wheat production is lowered 36 million bushels to 1,345 million with reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2025/26 survey-based production forecasts from NASS indicate that other spring wheat is less than last year at 504 million bushels on lower harvested area and yields while Durum is slightly lower at 80 million on reduced yields. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million but are up 5 percent from last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $5.40 per bushel, down from last year’s final SAFP of $5.52.
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