Source: Russell Knight and Hannah Taylor, USDA; ERS
In January, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $274.45 per hundredweight (cwt), a new monthly record and more than $48 above January 2024. However, since the announcement of resumption of cattle imports from Mexico, feeder cattle prices have dropped considerably. After reaching a weekly record price of $277.84 per cwt on January 27, prices have dropped more than $8 to $269.82 per cwt on February 10, but more than $26 above the same week last year.
In addition to incorporating the resumption of feeder cattle imports into the forecast, the Cattle report showed more head than previously expected outside feedlots on January 1, albeit still less than a year ago. The increase in the cow/calf ratio was carried over into 2025 expectations, increasing prospects for a larger-than-previously-expected calf supply in 2025.
Based on current prices, first-quarter prices are raised by $4; however, the increase from last month for feeder calf supply available in 2025 lowered third- and fourth-quarter prices by $2 from last month. As a result, the price outlook for 2025 is $273.75 per cwt, an increase of nearly 9 percent from 2024.
The January average price for slaughter steers in the 5-area marketing region* was $204.49 per cwt, $11.05 higher than December and over $30 above January 2024. In the first week of February, prices averaged $207.05 per cwt, nearly $26 above the same week last year. Based on recent price data and the fact that wholesale beef prices are at record levels for this time of year, the 2025 price forecast is adjusted higher from last month, with the annual price projected at $200.75 per cwt, over 7 percent higher than 2024.
* The 5-area marketing region includes Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
