Total Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. are expected to be significantly lower year over year in 2025.
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University
An invitation to speak at the annual meeting of the Unión Ganadera Regional De Chihuahua in Chihuahua, Mexico last week provided me an opportunity to get an update on the tough conditions facing beef cattle producers in northern Mexico.  The industry there is facing multiple threats simultaneously that has cattle producers on the defense and struggling to survive.
Drought has been the major issue in northern Mexico the past two years.  Chihuahua receives just a little over 16 inches of rain per year on average but has received a total of only 19.2 inches in the last 28 months, since the end of the rainy season in 2022.  The result is the critical drought situation shown in Figure 1.  Drought has forced producers to liquidate cows and reduce the herd in the region.  Pastures are bare and feed is in short supply.  Some cows have been relocated to central Mexico, where conditions improved in 2024 after a drought in 2023.  Cattle producers are trying to hold onto remaining animals for now, hoping that a normal rainy season will arrive in June.
Adding significantly to the challenges of Mexican producers is the discovery of New World Screwworm in southern Mexico and the closure of the U.S. border to livestock from late November through early February.  November and December typically account for over 22 percent of annual Mexican cattle shipments to the U.S., along with another 7.2 percent in January; but much of that was preempted by the border closure.  The drought and feed scarcity has made it very difficult and expensive to hold cattle waiting for access to the U.S. market.  Some cattle have been rerouted into domestic Mexican markets.
The border reopened in early February with restricted volumes and is slowly recovering normal weekly cattle flows into the U.S. (Figure 2).  In 2024, 37.7 percent of Mexican cattle imports into the U.S. were spayed heifers, much higher than the average of 15.7 percent in the previous 20 years.  The sharp increase in heifer exports is likely further indication of drought-forced liquidation of herds in northern Mexico. Since the border reopened in February, 42.2 percent of Mexican cattle imported into the U.S. have been spayed heifers.  This is due, in part, to the additional challenge that heifers must be exported within 180 days after spaying.  This means that any heifers spayed up until the border closure on November 22, 2024, must cross the border by May 21, 2025. 
Some heifers spayed earlier last fall have reached the six-month limit and have been marketed in the domestic Mexican market, at sharply lower values due to the sudden supply surge in Mexico.  Heifers have a maximum 159-day window for export as they must wait a minimum of 21 days after spay surgery but be exported by 180 days after surgery.  Heifers must be fully healed from the surgery and realistically this means waiting at least a month before exporting.  With the uncertainty of border access until recently, it is likely that few heifers were spayed since November, so heifer exports are expected to drop in the coming months, at least for a while.  Total Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. are expected to be significantly lower year over year in 2025 due to the slow start to exports in the first quarter of the year, fewer heifers in the export mix, and the likelihood that total cattle numbers are down, meaning that there are simply less Mexican cattle available for export.
The final challenge for Mexican cattle producers is the looming U.S. tariffs on Mexican products.  Many questions remain about if, when, and by how much trade will be restricted going forward. The additional uncertainty adds to the stress and challenges of Mexican producers in this very difficult time.