Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University
The latest USDA-NASS Cattle on Feed report pegged the February 1 feedlot inventory at 11.716 million head in feedlots with 1,000+ capacity, down 0.7 percent year over year. January marketings were 101.4 percent of one year ago and placements were 101.7 percent of last year. The report was well anticipated with values close to pre-report estimates.
The February report also contained a summary of 2024 feedlot production and the structure of the feedlot industry coming into 2025. The total U.S. feedlot inventory on January 1, 2025 was 14.297 million head, including 2.474 million head in feedlots with capacity less than 1,000 head (Table 1). Since cattle inventories peaked in the mid-1970s, feedlot inventories have represented a growing percentage of cattle inventories (Figure 1). Feedlot inventories represented 16.5 percent of total cattle inventories on January 1, 2025, down fractionally from the peak of 16.6 percent last year.
Table 1 shows the size distribution of feedlots and their contribution to total feedlot production. A total of 2105 feedlots with capacity of 1,000+ head (included in monthly Cattle on Feed reports) accounted for 82.7 percent of the January 1 feedlot inventory and 87.2 percent of total feedlot production in 2024. A total of 24,000 feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity accounted for 17.3 percent of feedlot inventory on January 1 and 12.8 percent of total feedlot marketings in 2024. Feedlots with capacity over 50,000 head made up 3.8 percent of feedlots over 1,000 head capacity but accounted for 34.8 percent of inventory and 35.1 percent marketings last year. Over 50 percent of feedlot inventories on January 1 and annual marketings in 2024 were in feedlots over 32,000 head of capacity, 6.9 percent of feedlots with 1000+ head.
The estimated total feedlot capacity (1,000+ head) on January 1, 2025 was 17.2 million head, up fractionally from the previous year. Total feedlot capacity has not changed significantly in recent years and has averaged 17.13 million head since 2011. Figure 2 shows the January 1 feedlot inventory as a percentage of feedlot capacity.
The cattle on feed percentage of feedlot capacity on January 1, 2025 was 68.7 percent, down from 69.8 percent in 2024 and from the recent peak of 70.4 percent in 2022. For the past fifteen years, feedlot inventories have averaged 66.7 percent of the feedlot capacity (red dotted line). The percentage dropped significantly from 2014-2017 during herd expansion. Ever tighter feeder cattle supplies and the prospect of heifer retention for herd rebuilding mean that the percentage is likely to decrease in the future.
