The numbers: The U.S. consumer-confidence index surged to 108.7 in October from a revised 99.2 reading in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is highest level of confidence since January.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to register 99.5 in October, only up slightly from the initial September reading of 98.7.
The index entirely reversed the steep decline seen in September.
Key details: A measure that looks at how consumers feel about the economy right now jumped 14.2 points to 138.0.
The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022.
The percentage of consumers saying jobs were plentiful ticked up, while the percentage of consumers saying jobs were hard to get slipped to 16.8%.
Big picture: Before the bump this month, consumer confidence about the current situation has been on a steady slide all year.
The overall index does remain below its pre-pandemic reading of 132.6 in February 2020.
Economists expected confidence to rise given higher stocks prices and a drop in the cost of gasoline.
The election wasn’t a top concern this month. It was only ranked 5th in write-in responses this month, behind references to prices, inflation and food. In October 2020 and 2016, election was ranked first or second in mentions.
What the Conference Board said: “Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
Looking ahead: “This a much more upbeat statement about the conditions of the economy than suggested by the Fed’s Beige Book survey,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
Last week, the Beige Book survey reported that consumers were on the hunt for bargains and that overall activity was flat or down in nine of the Fed’s 12 districts.
