September ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production is raised on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year. Pork production is raised for the second half of 2024 with a faster expected pace of slaughter, but slightly lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter data and hatchery data pointing towards more chicks placed in the third and fourth quarters. Turkey production is raised from last month based on eggs set data.
For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is raised as producers respond to improving margins. Pork production is reduced on slower expected growth in carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 26, providing a further indication of hog supplies available for slaughter in the first half of 2025. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is lowered based on the slower rate of growth in layer flocks carrying into 2025.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2024 and 2025 on the strength of domestic demand and availability of supplies from Oceania and South America. Beef exports are raised for 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and continued expected strength in global beef demand. Pork exports are raised for 2024 on recent trade data, but 2025 is unchanged. Broiler exports are lowered for 2024 on recent trade data. Turkey exports are raised slightly for 2024 based on recent trade data. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2025 are unchanged.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the second half of 2024 based on recent prices. Lower prices are expected to carry into 2025. Hog prices are unchanged for 2024, but forecasts are lowered in the first half of 2025 due to stronger expected competition with beef and poultry. Broiler price forecasts are lowered for the second half of 2024 based on recent prices. The broiler price forecast for 2025 is raised slightly. Turkey price forecasts are lowered for 2024 based on recent prices with lower prices expected to carry into 2025.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.502 billion. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the EU, Ghana, Russia, and Serbia partially offset by increases for Tanzania and Canada. EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for Romania and Hungary partially offset by an increase for France. Foreign barley production is lower with declines for Canada and the EU partly offset by an increase for Australia.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for Tanzania and Canada with reductions for Russia, the EU, and Serbia. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, India, and Thailand but reduced for China, Canada, and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut 1.4 million tons to 256.1 million, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania. World corn ending stocks, at 308.4 million tons, are down 1.8 million.
WHEAT:
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.70 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are raised primarily on Canada as Statistics Canada 2023/24 ending stocks were significantly higher than USDA’s previous estimate. Canada’s ending stocks were also raised substantially higher for 2021/22 and 2022/23 based on Statistics Canada revisions. World wheat production is lowered 1.4 million tons to 796.9 million, but remains a record, as a reduction in the EU is only partially offset by higher production for Australia and Ukraine. The EU is reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.0 million on unfavorable harvest weather for France and Germany. Australia’s production is raised 2.0 million tons to 32.0 million on favorable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. Ukraine is raised 0.7 million tons to 22.3 million based on harvest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Global consumption is increased 0.9 million tons to 804.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several countries more than offsetting a reduction for the EU. World trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada, and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for the EU. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons to 257.2 million as increases for Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan more than offset reductions for Australia, Turkey, and several other countries.
